Budget Economic and Fiscal Update (BEFU) 2021
Forecast Summary
This publication illustrates key benefit number forecasts presented at BEFU 2021.
The Treasury’s Budget Economic and Fiscal Update (BEFU) released on 20 May 2021 includes benefit number forecasts as part of the fiscal forecasts.
We expect there to be fewer people on benefit than previously forecast.
Overall, the number of people receiving a working-age benefit (WAB) (Working-age benefits defined here as Jobseeker Support, Sole Parent Support and Supported Living Payment) is expected to be lower than was forecast at the Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update (HYEFU) 2020.
Recently there has been fewer people on Jobseeker Support and Sole Parent Support than previously expected. This is mostly because:
- MSD has maintained and will continue to maintain a strong focus on supporting people into work
- the economy has been slightly stronger than expected
- more people than what we would normally see have exited benefit into study.
However, we still expect the number of people on a WAB to rise over 2021, and peak in January 2022. This is mostly because the economy is still expected to be soft over most of this year whilst border controls are in place.
In February 2021, around 376,000 people were receiving a WAB (latest actual at time forecast was finalised), at 12% of the working-age population.
The expected trends in WAB numbers will also have a flow-on effect on the number of people who will receive a supplementary assistance payment such as Accommodation Supplement.
Working-age benefit numbers
Actual and forecast
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Jobseeker Support
Actual and forecast
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Sole Parent Support
Actual and forecast
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