Benefit Forecasts for the Economic and Fiscal Update 2025
The Treasury’s Budget Economic and Fiscal Update (BEFU) released on 22 May 2025 includes benefit number forecasts as part of the overall fiscal forecasts
The Ministry of Social Development’s (MSD) benefit forecasts were finalised on 11 April 2025. This publication describes the key benefit number forecasts from the Budget Economic and Fiscal Update (BEFU) 2025.
The last forecast was the Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update (HYEFU) 2024, which was published in December 2024. These forecasts are important because they are used to inform Budget decisions and because the New Zealand Government spends a large portion of the Budget on Benefits or Related Expenses. Expenditure on Benefits or Related Expenses typically accounts for around 30 percent of Core Crown Expenses.
For the purposes of this publication, the number of people on a working-age benefit is the total number of people who are receiving Jobseeker Support (excluding Jobseeker Support Student Hardship), Sole Parent Support, and Supported Living Payment for all age groups. This differs from the definition of working-age benefits used in official MSD reporting.
The number of people on a working-age benefit is expected to continue rising and then fall after December 2025
The number of people receiving a working-age benefit is forecast to rise from around 398,100 people in March 2025 to around 407,500 people in December 2025. The expected increase in the number of people on a working-age benefit over 2025 is mainly due to increases in people receiving incapacity-related benefits, such as Jobseeker Support – Health Condition or Disability and Supported Living Payment.
After December 2025 the number of people receiving a working-age benefit is expected to decrease as economic conditions improve. From December 2025 working-age benefits are expected to decrease by around 41,300 to around 366,100 in June 2029.
Figure 1: Working-age benefit numbers
Figure 1 shows the historic and forecast number of people on a working-age benefit.
The dotted line shows the actual number of people who received a working-age benefit between June 2017 and March 2025. Our forecasts of the number of people expected to receive a working-age benefit at HYEFU 2024 and BEFU 2025 are displayed by the dashed line and solid line, respectively.
In March 2025, there were around 398,100 people receiving a working-age benefit.
At BEFU 2025, the number of people receiving a working-age benefit is expected to continue rising and peak at around 407,500 in December 2025.
After December 2025 the number of people receiving a working-age benefit is expected to decrease to around 366,100 in June 2029.
Figure 2: Jobseeker Support
Figure 2 shows the historic and forecast number of people receiving Jobseeker Support.
The dotted line shows the actual number of people that received Jobseeker Support between June 2017 and March 2025. Our forecasts of the number of people expected to receive Jobseeker Support at HYEFU 2024 and BEFU 2025 are displayed by the dashed line and solid line, respectively.
In March 2025, there were around 210,800 people receiving Jobseeker Support.
At BEFU 2025, the number of people receiving Jobseeker Support is expected to continue rising and peak at around 217,900 in December 2025.
After December 2025 the number of people receiving Jobseeker Support is expected to decrease to around 181,800 in June 2029.
