Benefit Forecasts for the Economic and Fiscal Update 2024
The Treasury’s Budget Economic and Fiscal Update (BEFU) released on 30 May 2024 includes benefit number forecasts as part of the overall fiscal forecasts
The Ministry of Social Development's (MSD) benefit forecasts were finalised on 15 April 2024. This publication describes the key benefit number forecasts from the Budget Economic and Fiscal Update (BEFU) 2024.
The last forecast was the Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update (HYEFU) 2023, which was published in December 2023. These forecasts are important because they are used to inform Budget decisions and because the New Zealand Government spends a large portion of the Budget on Benefits or Related Expenses. Expenditure on Benefits or Related Expenses typically accounts for around 30 percent of Core Crown Expenses.
For the purpose of this publication, people on a working age benefit is the total number of people of any age who are receiving Jobseeker Support (excluding Jobseeker Support Student Hardship), Sole Parent Support or Supported Living Payment.
The number of people on a working age benefit is expected to continue rising and peak at around 388,100 in January 2025
The expected increase in the number of people on a working age benefit is in line with the Treasury's forecast of weak economic conditions. The peak in the number of people on a working age benefit in January 2025 is around 3,400 people higher than expected at HYEFU 2023 and reflects a slightly weaker economic outlook at BEFU 2024 throughout 2024.
After January 2025 the number of people on a working age benefit is expected to fall as economic conditions improve, which is broadly in line with what was expected at HYEFU 2023.
Figure 1: Working age benefit numbers
Figure 1 shows the historic and forecast number of people on a working age benefit.
The dotted line shows the actual number of people that received a working age benefit between June 2016 and March 2024. Our forecasts of the number of people expected to receive a working age benefit at HYEFU 2023 and BEFU 2024 are displayed by the dashed line and solid line, respectively.
In March 2024, there were around 370,900 people receiving a working age benefit, which was around 500 more people (0.1 percent) when compared to the HYEFU 2023 forecast.
At BEFU 2024, the number of people on a working age benefit is expected to continue rising and peak at around 388,100 in January 2025. This is around 3,400 people higher than expected at HYEFU 2023.
After January 2025 the number of people on a working age benefit is expected to decrease to around 360,800 by June 2028.
Figure 2: Jobseeker Support
Figure 2 shows the historic and forecast number of people receiving Jobseeker Support.
The dotted line shows the actual number of people that received Jobseeker Support between June 2016 and March 2024. Our forecasts of the number of people expected to receive Jobseeker Support at HYEFU 2023 and BEFU 2024 are displayed by the dashed line and solid line, respectively.
In March 2024, there were around 189,300 people receiving Jobseeker Support, which was around 1,600 more people (0.8 percent) when compared to the HYEFU 2023 forecast.
At BEFU 2024, the number of people receiving Jobseeker Support is expected to continue rising and peak at around 202,000 in January 2025. This is around 3,500 people higher than expected at HYEFU 2023.
After January 2025 the number of people receiving Jobseeker Support is expected to decrease to around 180,400 by June 2028.
